Ida Ismail
On paper, Albania has plans, strategies and documents that aim to address one of the country's most serious challenges: an aging and shrinking population. In practice, according to a recent audit of Supreme State Audit Office (SSA), these policies often remain fragmented, uncoordinated and, in many cases, disconnected from reality.
The audit, which covers the period 2020–2025, sheds light on a deep gap between demographic developments and institutional response. As the country faces a continuing population decline, public institutions are left without an integrated approach and a single national strategy that comprehensively addresses the phenomenon.
The figures are clear and worrying. The 2023 census recorded 2.402.113 inhabitants, about 420 fewer than in 2011. Meanwhile, INSTAT estimates give a higher figure, 2.761.785 inhabitants, also reflecting inaccuracies and inconsistencies in the data. Projections for the future also do not give much reason for optimism: by 2031, the population is expected to fall to about 2.59 million inhabitants.
But beyond the numbers, the audit raises serious questions about how public funds are planned and used. The 2020–2024 Ageing Plan had foreseen nearly 19 billion lek for concrete interventions. In the end, only 41% of these funds were spent. The SAI notes that the lack of transparency and the unclear division of funds by activity make it difficult to understand where and why policies have failed.
Instead of a single strategic document, the issue of ageing is addressed piecemeal in several sectoral strategies, from employment and social protection to youth and national development. This fragmented approach produces policies that are disconnected from each other and often fail to effectively address the real challenges.
Problems also appear in other key sectors. The Social Fund is insufficient to meet growing demand, while employment programs are characterized by strong fluctuations in implementation. The Youth Guarantee Program, one of the main initiatives for young people, started with zero implementation and has not yet achieved stability.
Data from the National Employment and Skills Agency show a marked instability in the implementation of employment promotion programs. From 28% implementation in 2020, the figure increased to 97% in 2022, only to drop again to 68% in 2023 and 46% in the first eight months of 2025. In many cases, revised budgets result lower than the initial ones, reflecting a lack of consistency in planning.
In this context, one of the most promoted policies, the “baby bonus”, turns out to have limited impact. In 2021, 3.3 million lek were spent on this scheme, while in 2024 only 2.2 million. Meanwhile, births continue to fall: in the first quarter of 2025, they fell by 14.1% compared to a year earlier, while in the second quarter by 7.4%. The natural increase is already negative, with -883 people in the first three months of the year alone.
The audit suggests that such measures remain symbolic in the face of real factors influencing family decisions. Families with children face a poverty risk more than twice as high as those without children. In this reality, the decision to have children is more related to economic security, job stability and access to social Services than to one-off bonuses.
Another fundamental problem that emerges is the lack of data-based policies. Although detailed demographic projections exist, they are not fully translated into concrete policies. Strategies often contain general objectives, without measurable indicators and with weak monitoring mechanisms. As a result, a cycle is created where policies are designed but not adjusted according to real results.
Faced with this situation, the recommendations of the SAI are clear and call for structural changes. An integrated national strategy for aging is essential to coordinate existing policies. It also suggests a shift from one-time support to long-term forms, such as monthly payments for families with children. Improving the management of funds, increasing transparency and strengthening capacities at the local level are equally important.
In the end, between a declining population and a fragmented policy system, the question that remains is whether Albania will manage to move from plans on paper to policies that work in reality.acqj.al
